Sunday, May 26, 2024

How to Develop a Personalized Betting Strategy

Stefan Budur in Soccer Betting Strategies 23 Apr 2024


In this tutorial, I will show you how to develop a personalized betting strategy depending on your goals. Known, tested and validated soccer betting strategies that stood the test of time can help you set up a system that can benefit you greatly.

From creating your wagering goal to the size of the bankroll and what type of bet is more suited to achieve your targets, you will discover all the steps required to set up your personalized betting strategy.  

How to develop a personalized betting strategy

As used in many other fields successfully, a reverse engineering method is the perfect way to create a distinct betting strategy. You start with the final goal and break down all the required steps to reach the outcome you set up.

For example, if you aim to make a monthly 100-unit profit, you start by implementing a detailed betting strategy to help you reach your goal. In other words, you need to set precisely the following parameters:

  • size of the bankroll
  • risk tolerance
  • type of bet
  • betting market
  • betting strategy

Let’s further break down these factors and see how to align their particularities for a successful outcome. Since some of these elements are more important than others, you need to set them up all in line with your final betting goals.

Betting objectives

When you set up an objective, be realistic. Don’t expect a small bank to bring you big profits shortly. You might as well play the lottery if you choose this path. Set a realistic goal that can be achieved in a reasonable time frame.

You need to get this right, otherwise you can master all the other factors but will still fail due to not being realistic. Besides, you might lose the entire bankroll quickly if you aim too big. When you are successful with the process of the personalised betting strategy, return to the betting board and enhance the objectives. 

Size of the bankroll

The bankroll size is the most important aspect of your personalized betting strategy.

Depending on the available money, allow yourself to come out from a longer losing streak without going bust. Most rookies fail here by losing their entire cash since they increase the stake suddenly. They end up frustrated without actually making a full test of the betting strategy.  

Risk tolerance associated with a personalized betting strategy

Successful risk management in betting is key to returning a profit margin in the long term. Also, risk tolerance in betting is mostly influenced by the total odds on the bet slip, so the higher the odds the bigger the risk tolerance is. Depending on the type of punter you are, one of the below risk tolerance options can be more suited to you:

  • low risk (small odds, from Easy Money up to 1.50)
  • medium risk (odds between 1.50 to 2.00)
  • high risk (odds above 2.00 up to 3.50) 
  • very high risk (odds from 3.50 to 10)
  • fantasy risk (any odds above 10.00)

If you are a beginner, I recommend you start with a low-risk tolerance. Once you get more knowledge and learn how to control your emotions you can get to the next level of medium and high risk betting. For very high risk and, fantasy risk, you better have your bankroll ready to endure a long streak of losing bets before you get a return. 

Type of bet

Generally, you can use three main types of bets, depending on your experience, knowledge and risk tolerance. A single bet is a great option while ACCAs and in-play betting require more knowledge and experience.

However, the latter can potentially yield higher returns.

Betting market

Bookmakers diversified their betting markets in recent years aiming to attract new customers. From the already-established Asian Handicap and over/under 2.5 goals, to the recent bet builder and goalscorers, you are not short of options.

I advise you to stick to what you know best. Don’t wager money on bookings or corners if you aren’t familiar with this type of wager. Keep it simple and use betting markets for which you can get reliable sources of information.

Betting strategy

After you decide on the betting market and the bet type, it’s time to use the most appropriate betting strategy. Remember that some are more risk-averse than others. For example, the Fibonacci system is safer than Martingale since the stake is increased gradually.

You can also try D’Alembert or Paroli which can potentially yield great returns. Still, choosing the betting strategy will depend on your available bankroll. Also, you can use Kelly’s criterion to calculate accurately the next stake for each bet.

Example of personalized betting strategy

Betting on a draw is one of the best ways to build a successful betting strategy. However, remember that this is a riskier choice, hence the higher odds attributed to such an outcome. As mentioned above in the risk tolerance section, this is a high-risk bet.

Still, by using the Fibonacci betting system I lowered the risk of the betting strategy thanks to a gradual increase of the stake after each loss. This is extremely important since a high-risk bet will always lead to a losing streak, which can lead at the end to losing the entire bankroll.

Levante has been struggling in the Segunda Division since its 2022 relegation. This season, the Frogs are positioned mid-table with some chances of reaching the promotion play-off. However, betting Levante to draw in each game during the entire season would have been an excellent strategy.

How to Develop a Personalized Betting Strategy

You can notice Levante’s recent results in the Spanish second tier, with many outcomes ending in a stalemate this term. Through the entire season, Levante had 16 draws from 36 games, debuting with a stalemate (1-1) in August at Amorebieta.

Allow me to list all of the betting variables that I implemented in backing Levante to draw during the entire season:

  • betting objectives: 30% ROI
  • bankroll: 540 units
  • type of bet: a single
  • betting market: full-time result (draw)
  • betting strategy: Fibonacci system

For the 540 units, the Fibonacci sequence will be:

  • 10,10,20,30,50,80,130,210

Levante’s Segunda Division all-season results sequence so far is:

Also, the average odds for Levantes’s full-time draw results were priced at 3.10. Since this is considered a high-risk gamble, I set up a plan based on the Fibonacci sequence to balance the personalized betting strategy.

The table below illustrates a successful approach to a personalized settings strategy where I minimized the risk. I implemented a trick to lower the risk as I was expecting a losing streak along the road. The trick was to resume with the initial stake after each win giving therefore a safer way to protect my bankroll.

After 36 rounds, the strategy paid off with 316 units in profit, which represents a 58% ROI. Also, by resuming the initial stake, I managed to cover without any problems the longest losing streak of four consecutive lost bets. Even more, from the 540 available units I only used 120, which is less than 25% of the entire bank.

Since you gained more knowledge on how to develop a personalized betting strategy, I suggest you start slowly and safely by gambling responsibly and within your means.


    Stefan Budur

    Former owner of Betting Mojo, experienced bettor and former punter at Betadvisor, Stefan has done it all when it comes to soccer betting. With more than 15 years of experience in the gambling industry, he gained a lot of knowledge that he'd like to share with readers so you can position yourself better every time you place a bet.



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